Making Better Decisions over Time
The
technique of deliberate practice can dramatically improve performance, but
knowing its limits is as important as understanding its value.
Managers make a wide range of
decisions, from routine calls they face on a recurring basis, to large-scale
strategic decisions they may encounter just once in their careers. For issues
that are often repeated, the technique of deliberate practice—which involves
action, feedback, modification, and action again—is a powerful way to boost
performance. The technique works when a decision is part of a sequence, in
which feedback from one part can improve the next. Not all decisions work in
this manner, however. Knowing the difference is crucial.
To see how deliberate practice
works, let’s start by looking at an activity that takes just a few seconds:
shooting a free throw in basketball. Free throws are a good test of pure
shooting skill. The task is the same for everyone: tossing a ball, nine and a
half inches in diameter, through a hoop 18 inches wide, placed 10 feet off the
ground, from a distance of 15 feet. That’s not exactly threading a needle, but
it’s close. There isn’t a lot of margin for error. Furthermore, as with
striking a golf ball, performance is entirely up to you. You’re not predicting
what someone else will do; it’s up to you to throw the ball through the hoop.
During the 2011–12 season, National
Basketball Association teams attempted an average of 22.5 free throws per game.
The Oklahoma City Thunder made 80.6 percent of their free throws. The Orlando
Magic made just 66 percent of theirs. That’s a massive difference between the
top team and the bottom, but of course the variance among individual players is
even greater. Jamal Crawford of the Portland Trailblazers led the league,
sinking 92.7 percent of his free throws, far more than the season’s most
valuable player, LeBron James, at 77.1 percent, let alone the Magic’s Dwight
Howard, who made only 49.1 percent.
It makes you wonder: What’s the
secret to a good free throw?
To find out, a California-based
venture capitalist and inventor (as well as former college basketball player
and coach) named Alan Marty worked with Jerry Krause, head of research for the
National Association of Basketball Coaches, and Tom Edwards, director of
aeronautics at the NASA Ames Research Center. After months of research, they
determined that the best free throw has three features. First, it’s
straight—neither to the left nor to the right, but dead center. No surprise
there. Second, the best shot doesn’t aim for the exact center of the basket.
The perfect spot to aim for is 11 inches past the front rim, about two inches
beyond the midpoint. Third, and very important, is the arc. The best shots are
neither too high nor too flat, but leave the hands at an angle of 45 degrees.
Finding the best arc was the result
of three methods. First, the researchers observed some of the best free-throw
shooters and mapped their trajectories, which revealed a consistent 45-degree
arc. At the same time, Edwards, the NASA scientist, modeled the physics of the
free throw and determined the best shot had an arc in the mid-40 degrees.
Finally, the team built an automated shooting machine and programmed it to
throw over and over again in precise and replicable ways. They tried various
arcs, from relatively flat shots to high looping shots, and found the best was
45 degrees. Three methods, all of which converged on a single answer.
by Phil Rosenzweig http://www.strategy-business.com/article/00227?gko=12d89&cid=20140107enews&utm_campaign=20140107enews
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