Phones that can be rolled up. Computers that boot instantly. Ultra-cheap gene sequencing. Health care mobile apps…and more
1. CLOUD COMPUTING GOES VIRAL
Cloud computing has been one of the most discussed subjects in recent years. But it has so far remained just that: a widely discussed tech with few adoptions. This year will be an inflection point, as CIOs find the Cloud irresistible and start using it slowly. Many real benefits will accrue when the technology and business models start maturing soon. So far, scientists and internet companies have been the main users of big data. Now, traditional firms will find uses for it. Consumers too will begin to use the cloud in a big way and integrate the multiple devices they use. You could take a picture using your smartphone and view it on your computer — or TV — instantly through the cloud. Consumer journey on the cloud has just begun.
2. HYBRID SUPERCOMPUTERS
Big data does not drive cloud computing trends, but it does push supercomputing hard. New supercomputers are being developed rapidly, and their progress is not determined by computing needs alone. Economics and power consumption are vital components too. This year would see the birth of several supercomputers that are lightning fast and others that are low-cost and energy-efficient, but much faster than desktops. The so-called hybrid supercomputers, which use a combination of mainstream processors and graphics processors, should become popular. But the proliferation of supercomps could pose new problems in software development. By the year end, it could set off a completely new approach towards high performance computing software.
3. FLEXIBLE DISPLAYS
Won’t it be wonderful if your phone or tablet could be rolled up and put away in your pocket? Or the newspaper could be read in an e-format yet rolled up like a traditional paper. The first steps towards this goal will be taken this year when Samsung, Nokia and others launch the first phones with flexible displays. More devices will follow soon. Fully flexible devices are still a few years away, as they also require new kinds of batteries, processors, etc. But we will get there quickly as several new inventions are waiting to be commercialised. On the cards are electronic shelf labels in stores, electronic writing paper, windows that double up as displays, and so on.
4. MEMRISTOR
This newly discovered circuit element needs some luck to enter the market this year-end, but if will herald a big change in many industries. Memristor’s first use will be as a cheaper and faster alternative to flash memory. Later, it will also be used in place of solid state drives and transistors. All of them will lead to a big improvement in computing performance Memristor chips will result in computers that can be booted instantly. Memristor was discovered in 2007 by Hewlett Packard (HP), and is the fourth circuit element after resistor, inductor and capacitor. The first three are indispensible to the electronics industry, and the memristor will be equally important. HP is reported to have progressed rapidly towards commercialising its invention. A launch by the year end is difficult but possible. Get ready to say goodbye to flash memory.
5. ALGAL BIOFUEL
Last year was bad for biofuel firms, as several of them shut down. Many question the viability of the technology itself, as algal farms need plenty of nutrient and energy inputs that make them expensive. Yet industry observers believe oil prices and other factors might make algae biofuel viable. This year is significant because algae biofuel would go from labs to commercial plants. Several algae-based oil plants are coming up in Chile, Sri Lanka, Australia and the US. The technology will work in places that have salt water, lots of sunlight and empty non-arable land. An Indian company is experimenting with seaweed, a form of macroalgae, and it will also start work at a pilot facility this year.
6. LOW-COST GENE SEQUENCING
It took $3 billion to first sequence the human genome. In 2009, the cost was $100,000. Now it is under $10,000. By this year-end, it could touch $1,000 a genome. The drop in gene sequencing costs has even outstripped that of computing as described by Moore’s Law. Sequencing data analysis is becoming a problem, but it will soon be solved by increasing computing power.
There is a good chance that sequencing prices will soon drop to a tipping point where it becomes a part of routine health care. It will become part of clinical trials, letting us understand diseases and drug responses at a level the industry has only dreamed of. It will take at least five years before patients begin to feel the benefits, but 2012 could be the year that started it all.
7. GREEN CHEMISTRY
Technology advances mentioned so far can be felt by a large number of people directly. Green chemistry happens below the surface but makes the world a safer place. Many big companies are switching to benign processes, taking inspiration from nature. This trend will accelerate this year. Pike Research estimates that the green chemistry market will grow to $98.5 billion by 2020 from $2.8 billion. A large number of safer products and processes are being developed in labs and will be commercialised over the years. For example, chemical polyurethane is made using isocyanates (methyl isocyanate caused the Bhopal gas tragedy in 1984). Now a safe alternative is under development, which will make polyurethane biodegradable.
8. NEW SOLAR CELLS
It will be inappropriate if this list did not include solar energy, although we are not identifying any single development. A large number of breakthroughs are waiting to be commercialised over the next few years. Some of them will be in the market this year. This list includes 3D solar cells, high-powered organic solar cells, efficient printable solar cells, simple manufacturing processes, new methods of storage at night, and so on. Solar energy will achieve grid parity in many more markets this year — observers claim that it will prove a game changer over the next decade in spite of hurdles like trade wars. For example, 3D solar cells developed recently by MIT could change the economics of solar energy by making it possible to generate sufficient electricity on cloudy days. A 30,000-cycle battery from Stanford could make solar energy available at night.
9. HYBRID ELECTRIC CARS
Like solar energy, electric cars have long been considered a technology of the future. But they have not yet had a big impact on the transport sector because their sales have been restricted to a small group of environment-conscious people. This will begin to change from this year, as technology improvements and new product launches give them wider acceptance. IDC calls 2012 the “true year of the electric vehicle”.
This year will see several product launches in the category called the plug-in-hybrid. These include the Volvo v60, Toyota Prius plug-in-hybrid, Ford CMax and several others. The price of lithium ion batteries has dropped enough for them to be the primary choice in vehicles, but several alternatives are in research labs, and some of them could break through into the market.
10. SMART GRIDS
When the electric car market picks up, smart grids have to follow suit. But smart grids have much wider applications. Without them, a big switch to alternative energy is not possible. Smart grids also make homes, buildings and cities more energy efficient and let utilities manage their loads. Several new cities are being developed with smart grids as a unifying concept. Smart grids also allow advanced services like emergency response. The switch to smart grids will help utilities save hundreds of billions of dollars. Globally, 2012 is a key year for smart grids with three distinct kinds of activities. Early movers like Italy, Sweden and parts of the US and Canada go to the next level and deploy data applications. Singapore, parts of Europe and Brazil would see a big push towards building the infrastructure. Late movers like India would have some initial projects on a small scale.
11. METAMATERIALS
We have deliberately chosen a field that is expected to make significant advances but not likely to create headlines. Metamaterials are artificial materials with properties not found in nature. These properties depend on the structure of the material rather than its chemical composition. Light goes around certain metamaterials as if they do not exist and have become famous as a means of building an invisibility cloak. Such a cloak is far away in time, but engineers are exploring a large number of potential applications. Last year showed glimpses of possibilities for wireless power transmission, improved antennas and space and military applications. We expect several advances this year, particularly in the photonic metamaterials. Watch out for new sensors and nano-antennas.
12 . HEALTH CARE MOBILE APPS
We end this list with an obvious choice. Mobile apps are now all-pervasive but they are yet to reach even a fraction of their potential. In spite of quadcore phones and other hardware developments, it is applications that will truly transform the mobile landscape. The number of applications recently crossed the one million mark, and they will touch and change many industries. Health care is one such key sector. Companies like Philips, GE and Siemens are developing mobile applications that are already being used in clinics and hospitals. For example, it is possible for doctors to see images of scans immediately on their mobile device now. This will change the speed and reliability of health care.
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